What’s my fish worth?

I remember a conversation I had with my Uncle Eddie back in the late 80’s when I was a relative greenhorn in the business.  I’d had 3 or 4 years of buying experience under my belt and thought that I had a pretty good idea what this business was about.  Ecuador was king when it came to Shrimp, and shell-on was the only way to go.  The import cost of 50/60 count shrimp had just plummeted from 3.20/lb down to the unheard of price of 2.80/lb!  I tried to make the argument with Ed to take whatever capital we had and buy as many 50/60’s as we could lay our hands on because the item had gotten so cheap that it was selling below the base intrinsic value for the Shrimp.  Ed was very quick to point out to me that there is NO intrinsic value in Seafood.  Your fish is only worth what your customer is willing to pay you for it.

20 years later Ed’s words hold up better than ever.  Those 50/60’s that I would have felt safe selling at 2.95/lb are now worth 2.60/lb or less, and that size is one of the least affected by the deflation in the value of Shrimp.  Most sizes of Black Tiger Shrimp are at prices in the low end of the 10 year trading range.  Domestic Shrimp has taken a bigger hit, as it is now considered to be less valuable in the market than tigers, a total reversal in attitude!  Domestic Shrimp are selling at prices lower than they were in 1985, and that’s not taking into account the erosion in the value of a dollar.  In real terms the shrimp is selling for less than half what it did back then!

Let’s not limit our discussion to the value of Shrimp.  You can find similar examples with other species including Snow Crab, Warm and Cold water Lobster tails and meat, fresh Swordfish, and dozens of other products, all of which are trading at or below the prices that they’ve sold at any time during the last 20 years.  At the same point we have other items where prices are zooming.  Farmed Salmon fillets were worth 4.10/lb on average in September 2007.  They’re selling for 5.50-5.75/lb now.  Scallops are selling at or slightly ahead of the prices that they were at last year.  Frozen Swordfish prices have jumped about 20% in the last 2-3 months.  The general trend at the moment is deflationary, but there are items that are bucking the trend.

What’s the answer to the question up top?  Your fish is worth what your customer will pay for it AT THE MOMENT WHEN IT IS NEEDED.  If you’re a speculator in stocks or precious metals you may want to speculate in seafood as well.  This is perfectly fine as long as you follow basic rules.  Don’t invest before you research the market.  Be careful buying commodities that are not openly traded, where it is more difficult to establish a current market price.  Be realistic about whether you can sell your purchase when it comes time to liquidate- don’t buy more than you can move in a reasonable timeframe.  Don’t gamble what you can’t afford to lose. Finally, don’t forget- fish is not gold or even wine- it doesn’t get better with age!

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Selling the Seafood Sizzle

One of the biggest problems that most consumers have with seafood is that they simply do not know how to cook it.  This problem can be solved with a little education which will, when done effectively, create a loyal, committed customer.  The question is how to educate. In today’s fast paced society, the consumer is typically looking to reduce their time shopping.  Although they may say they are looking for an experience, in most cases, they target on developing a solution to their need for a meal and want to be in and out of the store as fast as possible.  Getting your customer engaged will be the key to making them a customer. 

The passive route to take is to develop recipe cards and to make them available to customers both at the counter and via your web site.  The benefit of this approach is the low cost - on the flip side - it will do little to engage your customer and get them excited about seafood.  The more proactive means of engagement would entail product demonstrations on site to show the customer the possibilities for creating a meal.  The upside of this approach is that your customer will see, smell, and taste the product - the downside is that it is expensive and results in limited customer exposure. 

I would recommend a hybrid approach - shoot a short video - no more than one minute - showing customers how to cook a particular meal.  In order to fully engage your store associates in the promotion, have them submit the recipes and do the cooking.  Combine this with a menu planning card as a take away and you have fully engaged your customer and made a sale in the process.

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Shrimp Recipe

Shrimp has become one of the most popular seafood items consumed by Americans today. There are many reasons why this is happening. One of them being that shrimp comes in a variety of packs and count sizes, therefore you buy the pack and size you need - so there’s no waste. It is also very affordable, versatile and easy to cook.  In minutes, you can have a delicious, healthy, home-cooked meal. There are many wonderful shrimp recipes around, here’s one of my favorites:

Shrimp Scampi

Ingredients

• 1 bag of BOS’N Black Tiger Shrimp
• 1 raw onion (diced)
• 1 green pepper (diced)
• 1 bunch of scallions (diced)
• 1 box of linguini
• 1 16oz. can of tomato sauce (optional)
• A dash of: seasoned salt, garlic salt, accent and pepper
• 1/2 stick of butter

Instructions

• Boil the pasta until al dente
• Saute shrimp with butter
• Combine with diced onions, green peppers, and scallions
• Let this mixture simmer for 5 minutes
• Add tomato sauce (optional)
• Let it cool for 3 minutes
• Drain the pasta and mix it all together in a large bowl, serve with salad and garlic bread

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Is it “Mahi” or “Mahi-Mahi?”

I am often asked how to tell a male Mahi from a female and here is the answer:  females have rounded heads and males have prominent, protruding foreheads that are square-like shaped.  Mahi is starting to hit its peak, import season now, and should be readily available and attractive priced from October thru February.  Try it….you will not be disappointed!  

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Warm Water lobster tails from the Pacific Ocean - Central American fishery

The Panulirus Gracilis lobster specie is found off of the Pacific coast of Central America. It is a small lobster; 90% of the lobster tails produced are in the 3-5oz range. These warm water lobsters have a spiny bright green shell and are caught by artisanal divers using surface supplied air or breath holding. Their fishing boats are either a small skiff or a canoe.  When the water is clear, a diver can find 10-30 lobsters in one day.   

The main sources of production are Panama and Nicaragua. I am familiar with the fishery in Nicaragua and it is sustainable and well managed. I believe this hand-caught fishing method is a big reason for the health of the fishery. The lobster tail freezing facilities are located in Managua, Nicaragua, which is a city located on the Pacific coast. The lobster tails arrive to the processing plants fresh throughout the day. They are immediately processed and are once frozen. I mention this because some fisheries freeze their lobster tails at sea, thaw them out at the processing plant for cleaning etc., then, refreeze them (twice frozen).

Central American production is relatively small compared to the Caribbean. Most of the shipments are flown by air to the USA, not sent by ship container; therefore, production figures are hard to track.

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Loligo Squid

Loligo Squid is a calamari specie that is prized around the world for its flavor and consistency.  There are many different types of loligo that come from different countries.  Known as long fin squid, this specie has a transparent (plastic-like) quill for its backbone.  The US has two commercial harvested species of loligo calamari:  Loligo pealei and Loligo opalescens. 

Loligo pealei, also known as Boston squid, is commercially harvested on the East Coast from New Jersey to Maine. Prized as one of the most flavorful and naturally tender of the loliginidae, it commands a premium in the whole and cleaned calamari marketplace.  Product used to be harvested and cleaned in the USA.  Now, product is harvested in the USA, land or sea frozen, and oftentimes sent to China for processing.  Whole frozen Loligo pealei is exported to Europe or Asia.

Loligo Opalesens is known in the marketplace as California Calamari.  This specie of loligo is smaller than the pealei and although quite flavorful, it is considered tougher or chewier.  There is big retail (supermarket) demand for whole frozen of this specie packed in 3lb. window boxes.  Once again if there is good catching, product is harvested in the USA, land or sea frozen, and oftentimes sent to China for cleaning.  An El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific impacts catching quite dramatically.

Boston squid (pealei) is the most expensive of all the cleaned calamari in the US market.  It is not as abundant in the market as the imported loligo species (vulgaris, chinensis) but it is the premium standard for taste and tenderness.  The cleaned forms for these loligo species include:  Tubes and Tentacles, Tubes Only, Rings Only and Rings & Tentacles.  The size references the tube length of the cleaned squid body, 5/8 means each tube length is approximately 5-8 inches long.  8/12 means each tube length is approximately 8-12 inches long and so forth.  The tentacles are typically packed in the natural proportion that occurs….about 35%.

In my next blog I will review the imported species of Loligo squid and discuss how they compare to the domestic Loligo pealei.

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Great Seafood Sells - More than you might think

As the economy has gotten tougher and customers have looked to increase their buying power, seafood has become challenged to compete with other lower priced proteins in stores. Consequently, seafood has seen smaller increases in sales than any other proteins over the last 12 months. Consumers have transferred their food dollars from restaurants to the grocery store. In response to this and the need to work on tighter margins, retailers have been reviewing the viability of maintaining fresh seafood departments in every store. In some cases, based on the ROI per square foot, retailers have decided not to keep a service department and convert solely to a self-serve case. But, purely looking at ROI does not tell the whole story.  It does not provide the complete impact that a fresh seafood case can have on sales dollars and profits that a store generates.

One chain in particular discovered that the fresh seafood service case has a broad reaching impact on every department in the store. After removing a number of service cases, they found that store sales were suffering in most of the other departments. They noticed that a number of higher ticket items were showing softness in sales and that the average order size per customer was declining. Upon further inspection, it was determined that the withdrawal of the service seafood case drove customers to purchase their groceries elsewhere. These same customers tended to create more culinary experiences and drove the sales of many of the higher priced and potentially higher margin vegetable, dairy, grocery and meat items. Where the average consumer might have spent $75.00 per visit, the average service seafood case consumer would spend $125 per visit. Although the seafood department may represent only 2-3% of total sales in retail - the truth is that it has a greater impact on the success of the store. The results would lead one to believe that by effective merchandising of fresh seafood, highlighting its health and convenience benefits, and the cross merchandising of products, the percentage of customers who frequent the seafood case increases. This also generates a new contingent of customers who are interested in creating a culinary experience, not just a meal.

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The Luxury Backlash

This economic disaster has created widespread commodity deflation. With the exception of Farmed Salmon, which is suffering from a major crop failure in Chile, we have seen prices drop. Sometimes these price drops can be good for a product. Lower prices, historically, have lead to increased consumption, and we’ve seen this on a number of items this year. There are a category of items however that have experienced a disproportionate drop in value and seen consumption drop to boot. I’m talking about luxury seafood items. 

What is a luxury seafood item? You’d think that it would be defined by price, but that is only part of the story. Perception is the other part of the equation. How many people are buying Hummers right now? Not a lot. It’s not solely based on the cost.  According to Carprice.com the base price of a Hummer is $32,345. The base price of a Toyota Avalon is $32,145, virtually identical. The Hummer is actually cheaper on the lot. People aren’t buying Hummers because of the message of “in your face” luxury and crass commercialism. Three years ago it was a status symbol. Now, it’s an embarrassment. This same thing is happening in Seafood.

What have been the biggest losers this past year in seafood? Jumbo Lump Pasteurized Crabmeat, Jumbo Shrimp and Lobster tails. These items dropped in value precipitously when the economy softened. The worst part was that consumption dropped more quickly than the prices, and no amount of discounting could bring that customer base back into the fold. We’re almost a year into the new economic reality and what do we see with these items? The pricing is still at or near historic lows and demand is still relatively low. What’s to be done?

We have to reposition these seafood items and make them accessible to a wider range of customers. We have to take the smaller sizes of lobster tails and sell them at retail as an affordable luxury. We need to get large shrimp on the menus of midrange restaurants in preparations that are not too “snotty” and at prices that are reasonable. We need to change customers’ perceptions of the position of these items in the marketplace.

It wasn’t just our 401k values that changed when the economy went south. We also have experienced a major shift in culture, away from flash and pretention and towards modesty and value. No one is sure how long the economy will be bad. Similarly we don’t know when or whether we will see a shift in cultural values. We need to live in the present and build our business based on current realities. If we do this, we’ll create a stronger and more stable base of demand for all products.

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