What’s My Fish Worth?
What’s my fish worth?
I remember a conversation I had with my Uncle Eddie back in the late 80’s when I was a relative greenhorn in the business. I’d had 3 or 4 years of buying experience under my belt and thought that I had a pretty good idea what this business was about. Ecuador was king when it came to Shrimp, and shell-on was the only way to go. The import cost of 50/60 count shrimp had just plummeted from 3.20/lb down to the unheard of price of 2.80/lb! I tried to make the argument with Ed to take whatever capital we had and buy as many 50/60’s as we could lay our hands on because the item had gotten so cheap that it was selling below the base intrinsic value for the Shrimp. Ed was very quick to point out to me that there is NO intrinsic value in Seafood. Your fish is only worth what your customer is willing to pay you for it.
20 years later Ed’s words hold up better than ever. Those 50/60’s that I would have felt safe selling at 2.95/lb are now worth 2.60/lb or less, and that size is one of the least affected by the deflation in the value of Shrimp. Most sizes of Black Tiger Shrimp are at prices in the low end of the 10 year trading range. Domestic Shrimp has taken a bigger hit, as it is now considered to be less valuable in the market than tigers, a total reversal in attitude! Domestic Shrimp are selling at prices lower than they were in 1985, and that’s not taking into account the erosion in the value of a dollar. In real terms the shrimp is selling for less than half what it did back then!
Let’s not limit our discussion to the value of Shrimp. You can find similar examples with other species including Snow Crab, Warm and Cold water Lobster tails and meat, fresh Swordfish, and dozens of other products, all of which are trading at or below the prices that they’ve sold at any time during the last 20 years. At the same point we have other items where prices are zooming. Farmed Salmon fillets were worth 4.10/lb on average in September 2007. They’re selling for 5.50-5.75/lb now. Scallops are selling at or slightly ahead of the prices that they were at last year. Frozen Swordfish prices have jumped about 20% in the last 2-3 months. The general trend at the moment is deflationary, but there are items that are bucking the trend.
What’s the answer to the question up top? Your fish is worth what your customer will pay for it AT THE MOMENT WHEN IT IS NEEDED. If you’re a speculator in stocks or precious metals you may want to speculate in seafood as well. This is perfectly fine as long as you follow basic rules. Don’t invest before you research the market. Be careful buying commodities that are not openly traded, where it is more difficult to establish a current market price. Be realistic about whether you can sell your purchase when it comes time to liquidate- don’t buy more than you can move in a reasonable timeframe. Don’t gamble what you can’t afford to lose. Finally, don’t forget- fish is not gold or even wine- it doesn’t get better with age!