Who gets the fish?
Who gets the fish?
by Ruth Levy
The New Year approaches and especially with the change of a decade it is a time for reflection, resolutions and of course predictions. We have all experienced the changes that have occurred this past decade so I prefer to look forward to what might be ahead. My crystal ball is subject to operational error, so I give myself the disclaimer of ‘Subject to Change’.
‘Subject to Change’ has certainly been the mantra of seafood prices and availability. Looking ahead, I see this continuing and intensifying. Seafood prices hit some historic lows this past year and have been correcting themselves since. With a relatively weak dollar (although the current strengthening is very welcome!) and a hungry world population, there is major competition for the last wild hunted food group. Farm raised seafood does help to ease some of this demand. However, when a major farmed seafood category like Atlantic Salmon is at historic production lows for 2010, or Basa production is predicted to be lower, the question becomes: Who is going to get the fish? Is it just those that can pay? How does ’sustainability’, ‘green movement’ or ‘carbon footprint’ impact this?
We all have heard how India and China are the upcoming world powers. Will they get the fish and if so, at whose expense? Currently both countries are global sources of seafood. When will they start to consume most of what they produce? Already, certain species remain for local consumption and are not entering the global marketplace.
For me, one of the big issues in the year or years ahead is ‘Who gets the fish’. Overall seafood supply is not going to increase that dramatically. No longer is it just ‘Who can afford the fish’ as there are more and more populations that are able to pay. Is the trend to ‘local consumption’ a preview of what is ahead for seafood? Our business is a global business. But as with everything, a correction is due here as well. My crystal ball isn’t clear enough to know when this ‘global correction’ will happen. The dynamics for ‘getting the fish’ are not just going to be based solely upon price. Other factors will enter in as we start to define in the next decade ‘Sustainability’, ‘Buy Local’, ‘Carbon Footprint’ etc. So be ready, ‘Subject to Change’ remains a basic fundamental to sourcing and supplying seafood.
I wish everyone a Very Happy, Healthy and Prosperous New Year!